What if you bought last year's hottest stock, every year?
$1,000 into SPY every January vs $1,000 into the S&P 500's best performer of the previous year — 2005 through 2024. Chasing winners feels like the smart money move. Twenty years of data is about to disagree.
$1k/yr into SPY
$83,607
$20,000 invested · +318%
$1k/yr into last year's winner
…
The lab is crunching the numbers
The setup
$1,000 invested on the first trading day of each January, 2005–2024 (20 deposits, $20,000 total), valued on the last trading day of 2024.
Strategy A — Steady: every January deposit buys SPY.
Strategy B — Chasing winners: every January deposit buys the S&P 500 stock that gained the most the previous calendar year. Each year's pick is held to the end of 2024.
Prices are dividend-and-split-adjusted. No fees, no taxes.
Full results drop with the episode
The year-by-year table — all 20 winners, what each did the year after being crowned, and the final portfolio values — publishes here the moment the episode goes live on @market.whatif. Follow so you don't miss the verdict.